Europe is experiencing a recovery in travel from its low points last year. However, this recovery is unlike like past rebounds. Early data for this year show mixed results, with nearly as many countries posting visitor declines as increases. Still, industry data for aviation, lodging, and expectations show we are on an upward, though modest, path to recovery.
The report, compiled for ETC by Tourism Economics, shows that overnight visits to European destinations declined 6% in 2009 while international travel around the world fell an estimated 4.7% against the headwinds of the global recession. However, signs of a travel recovery emerged in the final months of the year as economies around the world strengthened.
Travel demand trends in the last three months of 2009 confirmed that the recovery was underway, although the growth was in large part due to comparisons with the low levels in late 2008.
As we enter the second half of 2009, there is growing optimism at the emergence of so-called 'green shoots', but there is a risk that this optimism will prove premature. Output is still falling in most of the industrialised world.
It is now clear that the financial-sector blizzard that struck in the second half of 2008 is affecting the global economy. Every single OECD member country, and every single economy in Europe, is expected to suffer a contraction in GDP in 2009. Not many emerging markets, so many of which were booming in 2007-2008 will be able to sustain any significant growth in 2009, either. And the downturn is expected to be more severe than any in recent memory.