European Tourism in 2010 - Trends & Prospects (Q1/2010)

The travel recovery is underway but remains fragile

The report, compiled for ETC by Tourism Economics, shows that overnight visits to European destinations declined 6% in 2009 while international travel around the world fell an estimated 4.7% against the headwinds of the global recession. However, signs of a travel recovery emerged in the final months of the year as economies around the world strengthened.

As the “great recession” gave way to economic life in the final quarter of last year, some European destinations posted visitor growth.  And as 2010 begins, the trends established in the latter portion of 2009 are carrying into 2010.  European airlines are reporting higher load factors due more to increased passenger numbers rather than cuts to capacity. Hoteliers have experienced higher occupancy rates across Europe and revenue is growing in the first quarter despite lower prices.  Both of these trends point to renewed growth in tourist arrivals in the first part of 2010.

While the beginning of the recovery appears to be underway, European economic conditions remain fragile - especially in the labour market which will weigh on already weak consumption. Additionally, budget troubles across much of the region remain a concern.  

In the short term, survey results from travel-related industries are all pointing toward growing demand over the next few months in comparison to the depths of the recession.  

As the year progresses, the recovery will need to gain momentum if it is to compare favourably with last year.  Visits to European destinations are expected to grow by 2.4% in 2010 and then accelerate to 3.8% in 2011, when 2008 visitor levels will finally be regained.

Click here ( Adobe Acrobat PDF file) to download the report.


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