Deloitte Asia Pacific Economic Outlook - November 2011
The November 2011 edition of Deloitte's Asia Pacific Economic Outlook gives a near-term outlook for China, India, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam.
The November 2011 edition of the Asia Pacific Economic Outlook gives a near-term outlook for China, India, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam.
China: China’s economy is feeling the effects of a global slowdown. According to conventional wisdom, the country’s economy will likely decelerate in the fourth quarter and grow in the neighborhood of 9.0 percent in 2012. Inflation appears to have peaked, and the financial stability of the Eurozone is clearly in China’s national interest.
INDIA: The Indian economy is muddling along at the moment, and it is on course to achieve above 7 percent growth this fiscal year. However, long-term challenges related to infrastructure, the health of its banking system, food inflation, and the fiscal deficit are expected to weigh heavily on the economy’s ability to sustain high growth.
MALAYSIA: Malaysia’s economic growth in the second half of 2011 will likely be upheld by domestic consumption and investment. This will likely help Malaysia achieve a respectable growth rate in the range of 4.5–5.0 percent for the entire year. However, concerns over Eurozone debt and a sluggish U.S. economy continue to pose a downside risk on its economic performance.
TAIWAN: The latest GDP numbers suggest that the Taiwanese economy is losing steam. Burgeoning economic woes from the West along with disruption in Japanese demand seem to have put the brakes on the export-dependent economy. The government cut its GDP forecast to 4.6 percent for 2011 and is expecting a further decline to 4.4 percent in 2012.
VIETNAM: Vietnam’s economy expanded 6.1 percent in Q3 2011, owing to a strong performance in the services and construction sectors. However, frequent interest rate hikes and high inflation will likely weigh on both consumption and private investment in the coming months. Furthermore, macroeconomic instability, a persistent current account deficit, and dwindling foreign exchange reserves do not augur well for the economy.
Asia Pacific Economic Outlook - November 2011 (3822.87 KB)
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